Four Degrees, 50 Years, Climate Change

New Global Warming study out: four degrees c rise within 50 years suddenly plausible. Living in a world of predictive studies is great: its like living out an entirely new reality every study. The UK’s Department of Energy and Climate Change, in an event at Oxford, said they are looking at 4 degrees C rise within 50 years:

A 4C average would mask more severe local impacts: the Arctic and western and southern Africa could experience warming up to 10C, the Met Office report warns.

The study updates the findings of the 2007 report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which said the world would probably warm by 4C by 2100 if greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise. The IPCC also listed a more severe scenario, with emissions and temperatures rising further because of more intensive fossil fuel burning, but this was not considered realistic. “That scenario was downplayed because we were more conservative a few years ago. But the way we are going, the most severe scenario is looking more plausible,” Betts said.

A report last week from the UN Environment Programme said emissions since 2000 have risen faster than even this IPCC worst-case scenario. “In the 1990s, these scenarios all assumed political will or other phenomena would have brought about the reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by this point. In fact, CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel burning and industrial processes have been accelerating.” [link]

The UN study is [ here ].

Also, reuter, ap etc talk it up [ here ], [ here ], and [ here ].

But overall, the best interpretation of the study, for both its implications for the worldwide appliance market and its shaving 10 years off the study:

UK Predicts Social Chaos and Collapse of Biosphere in 40 Years

The UK’s Department of Energy and Climate Change have raised the predicted temperature rise to 4 degrees C (7.2 F) by the mid to late 2050’s.
This would mean Katrina flooding, or Los Angeles fires, or Georgia drought, or 1930’s dust bowl simultaneously and from sea to shining sea, AND within the lives of many of our readers, and all of our children.
For appliance manufacturers it may mean a signficant replacement market if parts, materials, labor, and energy can be secured, and the roads are cleared of debris, and the factories are willing to work on barter. [ link ]